01-23-2005, 05:15 PM
The most important aspect of Israel's perspectives on Iran's potential development of nuclear weapons is what could be called its alleged "cascading effect". The same paper states that if Iran "continues with its weapons development program and acquires or even comes close to acquiring a military nuclear capability, Saudi Arabia will probably feel compelled to seek a nuclear 'umbrella' from Pakistan, through an existing or new cooperation agreement. Others in the region, particularly Egypt and Turkey, will be similarly driven to obtain such a capability." It goes on to claim that even Iraq would be impelled "in the more distant future, to develop a WMD [weapons of mass destruction] capability."
Thus, the essential aspect of Israel's position on the subject is that no Middle Eastern country, save itself, has the right to possess nuclear weapons. Two realities should be kept in mind regarding Israel's position. First, the US government has absolutely no problem with Israel having a nuclear monopoly in the Middle East. Second, the Israeli position regarding nuclear non-proliferation is a virtual carbon copy of the long-standing US position on the subject. Washington originally did not want the Soviet Union to develop nuclear weapons. In fact, the capabilities of the former communist superpower to do so radically changed the rules of the game underlying the Cold War. During that period, US foreign policy, along with that of the Soviet Union, was constantly driven by the notion of nuclear deterrence. It was only after the implosion of the Soviet Union that US foreign policy was liberated from any thought regarding how Moscow would respond or react to its own maneuvers worldwide.
In the same manner, Israel is afraid that if a Middle Eastern country becomes a nuclear power, it could forever lose its freedom of action in the Middle East. The specifics of such a scenario are not important because Israel will do everything in its power, including preemptive attacks, to make sure that no Middle Eastern country ever develops nuclear weapons. The US, regardless of who is sitting in the White House, has no problem with such a frame of mind. Such a reality makes it difficult for Iran to realistically think about becoming a nuclear power any time soon.
(By: Ehsan Ahrari, PhD - an Alexandria, Virginia, US-based independent strategic analyst.)